Chapter TEN-(2013 series of articles)

NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand Yearling Sales, Champion Sires

WHAT BUYERS CAN EXPECT FROM THEIR 2013 PURCHASES.

1…….Many people at the sales every year are very optimistic and

just about every person spoken to can see something exciting or

outstanding in the shape, make, pedigree or breeding of every animal

they want or intend to buy. It doesn’t make sense to make snap judgements.

2……Surely it is better to gather a lot of facts, then process the

information properly to come up with sensible, logical choices

based on a large number of facts.  This should lead to more sensible decisions and hopefully, much better and more successful results.

It is better to be more conservative and very realistic.

Very good planning, organising a budget and getting the best

available advice should be a good mode of operation.

3……Yearlings are smaller than their full size maturity, less muscled and mature and this precursor  level does allow intending buyers to use their minds and imagination to fill in the gaps and picture the possible ongoing growth through into a big, strong athletic champion. It gives your imagination and dreams great

scope to magnify possibilities. More romance than facts. More

hoping than investigation into realistic probabilities, more bias

than actual comparing of measurable traits.

4……These ideas of grandeur do not have any proof or consequences attached for two or three years, so are usually not tempered by reality or common sense.

5……There is a lot of “HYPE” at the sales with big impressive,

first impression signs around. Plenty of action, activity, noise

and excitement. Plenty of food and refreshments.

6….BUT, THERE IS A HUGE VOID of worthwhile information to assist the buyers.

The auctioneers and promoters know that too many facts works against sales. If it’s not bold and easily seen in a few seconds in

a single glance, it slows down the process, and inhibits those sort

after bids and quick buying.

7….What is wanted is people frantically bidding against each other without thinking.  The best results are gained when people get keyed

up and emotional, and leave their smarts and logical behind.

8….All this is further compounded by such a short 3 minutes or so in the sale ring. The relaxed promotional and hospitality tents, good atmosphere of eating and drinking tends to lead to a stiff fortifying drink, and such a good comfortable feeling, that many people tend

to get carried away in the sale ring, and make a lot of bids buoyed

up by this hospitality.

9….If you are unprepared, and have not thoroughly examined the

yearlings you are interested in, then you are letting yourself

jump unprepared into a situation where over 90 % of the offerings will never pay their way on the racecourse. This means you are

bound to make more mistakes of judgment because less

information has been gathered to make a better decision.

10…It would be lovely to have a dollar for every impulse buy

we’ve seen at the sales. Hasty decisions make for long slow

future suffering of consequences. Let’s give all those professionals

out their real credit for some outstanding knowledge, hard fought

experience and hundreds of hours of diligent examination of

catalogues and yearlings before the sales, as well as dedicated

work over the week of the sales.

11….If you are not confident, competent or knowledgeable enough,

then go to those people who have the best track record and incorporate their help to assist you in your purchase of a yearling

that has an extremely strong possibility of winning at the top level.

12….We thought it would be quite a good idea to look at a

realistic way to determine just what the odds are for buying

a good racehorse from these sales.

13….Possibly, the best way to proceed is from a sound base of FACTS.  This led to us looking at just what the FIRST AND SECOND DAM OF EVERY YEARLING IN THIS 2013 SALE SERIES had done in it’s breeding record so far.

14…What the first 2 dams have already done should give an idea

of what to expect in the future. One flaw is that the first dams in

many cases may have very few foals that have not had time to

reach their full potential. Some do have full records, and the second dams mostly have very comprehensive records, but we think  the majority of foals from the first dams will not realistically improve their records, so we will have some figures as a base line to try and

understand just what the odds are if we intend to buy a yearling for racing purposes.

15….One of the BEST understandings that may come out of the study is the COMPARISON BETWEEN THE YEARLINGS

IN EACH OF THE THREE SALES.

16….To make this a fair comparison I’ve compared the FIRST

HUNDRED MARES FROM EACH OF THE THREE SALES.

This will give a very obvious comparison all based on 100, not

leading to confusion with different base numbers.

17……….The following table shows that the 1^st and 2^nd dams COMBINED produced 13 foals (6.5each) on average, 9 raced (4.5 each) on average, 7 were winners (3.5 each) on average

and 2.5 foals paying their way-(1.25 each) on average.

18…LETS CHECK OUT THE PREMIER SALE OF 2013

…(441 yearlings)

ONE HUNDRED of the  first and second dams produced:

........................................ 1,313 foals

……………………………947 (or 72.12%) of them have raced

……………………………706 (74.55% of raced) were winners

……………………………154 were STAKES WINNERS

……………………………..52 were STAKES PLACED

……………………………..47 were very good multiple winners

NB…These last 3 groups indicated 253 (19.26% of foals)

that raced from the 1^st and 2^nd dams PAID THEIR WAY ON THE RACECOURSE.

19….Notice that the close IN-BREEDING to SIR TRISTRAM in

Chapter 7 showed 27.40% of named foals did not get to the races.

A much bigger percent of 83.14% of named  3X3 in-bred STAR KINGDOM horses did not reach the races.

20……..Compare these in-bred matings with the above figures:

In-bred SIR TRISTRAM named horses showed 59.13% won a race.

In-bred STAR KINGDOM named horses showed 7.41% won a race.

21….It would worry me as a purchaser that only THREE QUARTERS of the foals from these K1 (Karaka 1) sale mares

that are going to average over $160,000, will be sound enough

or have the conformation to get to the races. These are the best bred mares all going to the best, highly credentialed sires, and given the

very best of rearing conditions.

22….I would be totally absorbed checking out every possible

leg alignment and other conformation fault that it would be possible

to evaluate. Get the experts working here. It could save you some injudicious purchases. At least start out with a horse that has a very

good chance of reaching the races.

23….For buyers intending to pay out their $160,000 or so average for this years PREMIER SALE , remember that 19.26% of yearlings that will pay their way on the racecourse ONLY REFERS TO earning enough to repay agistment, rearing, breaking, gear, shoeing, vets, training, feeding and race-day expenses.

24…..IT DOES NOT COVER YOUR EXPECTED outlay of possibly $160,000 plus expected in this years 2013 average.

You will have to be ultra lucky to get that back.

25….Lets now look at the 2^nd sale, called THE SELECT SALE,

which offers the 2^nd level yearlings for 2013-(610 yearlings).

26…..The FIRST 100 SELECT 1^st and 2^nd dams produced:

……………………………1278 foals

……………………………..875 (or 68.46%) of them raced

……………………………..608 (or 69.40%) of these were winners

………………………………88 were STAKES WINNERS

………………………………51 were STAKES PLACED

………………………………28 were good race winners

NB…These last 3 groups indicated 167 (13.06% of foals

that raced from the 1^st and 2^nd dams PAID THEIR WAY ON THE RACECOURSE.

27…….Now we have TWO SETS OF FIGURES TO COMPARE.

The SELECT 1^st and 2^nd DAMS had 35 less foals

The SELECT DAMS had 72 less foals to race

The SELECT DAMS had 98 less winners

The SELECT DAMS had 66 less STAKES WINNERS

The SELECT DAMS had 86 less horses that paid their way.

28………The figures lend themselves to a lot of discussion and interpretation, but overall the PREMIER SALE leads in all categories, but you have to pay significantly more.

29……Your quandary……..Do you pursue the chances of getting

one of the 154 STAKES WINNERS or do you deliberately pay a

lot less and see if you can get one of the 88 STAKES WINNERS

at the SELECT SALE LEVEL.

30….The trick is to miss getting a failure from either sale, because

the figures indicate a possible 80.74% failure rate to just repay

racing expenses for the PREMIER SALE, and an 86.94%

failure rate to cover just racing expenses from the SELECT SALE GROUP.

31…….THE FESTIVAL SALE, 3rd level yearlings for 2013-………(439yearlings).

The FIRST 100 FESTIVAL 1^st and 2^nd dams produced:

……………………………1181 foals

……………………………..761 (or 64.43%) of them raced

……………………………..531 (or 69.77%) of these were winners

………………………………43 were STAKES WINNERS

………………………………22 were STAKES PLACED

………………………………18 were good race winners

NB…These last 3 groups indicated 83 (7.02%) of foals

that raced from the 1^st and 2^nd dams PAID THEIR WAY ON THE RACECOURSE.

32…The average price for the FESTIVAL SALE for 2012 and 2011

was $15,300 and $12,072 respectively.

33……..The comparison shows a further big drop in foals produced, drop in winners and a huge drop in STAKES WINNERS from the

 1^st 100 dams in each of the three sales..

34..SALE…….SW…….%SW.........%PAID WAY  

PREMIER= 154 SW –(19.26%)…253(19.26%)paid racing expenses

SELECT   =   88 SW –(13.26%)...167(13.06%) paid racing expenses

FESTIVAL = 43 SW –(  7.02%)…..83 (7.02%) paid racing expenses

Helen and Les Pratt…  lpratt@clear.net.nz