Chapter SEVEN-(2013 series of articles)

NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand Yearling Sales, Champion Sires

PREMIER SALE, SELECT SALE, FESTIVAL SALE –(2013)

1…Let’s look at some ideas to consider for the above three sales

which will be held at Karaka in New Zealand at the end of next month.

a….Intending buyers have about FIVE WEEKS of intense study .... 

……left before the sales which start on 28^th and 29^th of January, 2013,

…….So this could be a really hectic time for intending.... 

 …….buyers/trainers/agents with lots of Christmas/Holiday

…….racing, examination of catalogues, ringing of clients, visiting

…….yearling Vendor farms/paddocks, and organising clients/finance.

b….There are 1492 yearlings catalogued over the 7 sales days.

……So plenty of possibilities for a wide range of tastes and buyers.

c….A selection process has been undertaken to grade the yearlings

……into the best bred or most saleable in the first PREMIER... 

 ……SALE, (441 yearlings), second best in the SELECT SALE,

……(610 yearlings) and the third best in the final FESTIVAL

…… two day sale (439 yearlings).

d…..The strongest buying bench, (mostly Australian and overseas).. 

 …….appears for the Premier Sale, with lesser demand and prices

…….for the SELECT sale. Mostly local buyers pay a very reduced

……average price for the Festival sale yearlings which may have

……less appeal in the pedigree, female family line, or conformation.

e…..Contrary to general buying expectation, not all of these specially

……bred, exceptional pedigreed and quality control approved- by- ... 

……inspection conformation yearlings in the PREMIER SALE will be.. 

 ……good investments.

f…..In actual fact, the vast majority,( about 80%) will not repay JUST,

……OR EVEN racing and training expenses.  When buyers add the

……very hefty PURCHASE +GST, +TRANSPORT, BREAKING

……AND TIME involved in getting their youngster to a mature

……enough state to withstand the stresses of racing, then the owners

……who are fortunate enough to make a profit could be down to

……single digits figures.

g…..This means that intending owners, intending buyers, agents

……and trainers need to utilize the absolute best pedigree analysis,

……the best conformation judges, have deep pockets and be high

……up on the very fortunate list.

h…..Price is no guarantee to success, but diligent financial planning,

……employing the best professionals in the industry and seeking the

……best advice should minimize a lot of risk.

i…..PREMIER SALE YEARLINGS…Paying a VERY HIGH PRICE,... 

 …say over $300,000 or more can be very risky and expensive.

…Buyers need nerves of steel, deep pockets and plenty of resolve.

…Look for quality, athletic individuals in the mid &below-mid range.

…Good G1 performers have come from the less expensive purchases.

…Keep your eye on having class, speed and judicious stamina factors.

…Look for strength, constitution, action, leg accuracy, acceleration.

…Plenty of standout sires here, and exceptional dam lines & SW.

…Do your homework & look for the principles that Champions have.

 j…..SELECT SALE YEARLINGS…Keep in mind that these 610...   

……yearlings are not deemed to be as well bred, as well related, and .. 

……could be from less successful families and could have more... 

 ……physical faults than the selected PREMIER yearlings.

……Remember, after purchase these yearlings from the second tier

……have to compete with all the supposedly superior bred, credentialed..  

 ……and superior conformed PREMIER yearlings.

……To carry the inequality further, the high priced ones have been

……purchased by owners with the means to ensure they go to the

……absolute best trainers that money can buy, so they have the

……optimum chances to succeed on the racecourse if they are good... 

 ……enough.

k…..History shows us that perhaps only 1 in 10 of these commercial

……pedigrees work to produce a highly successful racehorse.

……Having a high class Champion Sire, top race-mares and broodmares

……along the dam-line, and good rearing, successful vendors, and good... 

 …….conformation is no guarantee for success.

……If NINE OUT OF TEN of these highly pedigreed animals fail the …….racecourse test, then other factors would appear to be also very …….essential ingredients to make an athlete.

…….Look at leg action, leg alignment, stride length, constitution, the …….many rules for balance, speed factors, will to win, size, shoulder …….alignment, hind quarter power, hock attachment, hock and gaskin …….angles and a few dozen more critical factors including heart …….efficiency that could enhance or compound physical athletic …….performance.

l……These BEST BRED, COMMERCIAL pedigrees have the best

…….SELECTION and the best ANCESTORS. Overall, THEY DO …….HAVE THE BEST RECORD FOR PRODUCING THE MOST …….OUTSTANDING GALLOPERS PER HUNDRED FOALS

…….than any other breeding group, and that includes the SELECT

……..and FESTIVAL sales.

…….However, you do have to pay many times more for the good …….breeding, and the failure rate could be as high as 90%.

m…..FESTIVAL SALE YEARLINGS

…….Although there are some good physical types in this sale, and some

…….very good performers come out of it, there are quite a few very …….average and faulty comformation types here and the risks and odds …….are greater than the other two sales.

…….Prices are lower, but very few top horses will emerge.

…….More obvious faults are apparent, but more hidden ones …….concerning poorer action, lack of constitution, and mental …….aberrations and aptitudes could have profound effects.

…….There may be rearing, feeding abnormalities, and faults from the ……..less successful sires, dams, families that are hard to ascertain or ……..determine.

……..I HAVE PREPARED SOME INFORMATION FOR ANOTHER ……..CHAPTER THAT SHOWS CLEARLY EXPECTATION FOR
……..ALL THREE SALES BASED ON FACTS, but that will depend

……..on sufficient interest, or if my workload allows time to publish it.

n…..Each year many exceptional horses are sold through the Premier

……Sale, and probably less through the Select sale and the least number

……through the Festival sale.

……Buyers need to do the homework on actual AVERAGE price for ……each sale, and the ACTUAL number of horses that PAY THEIR ……WAY from each sale. This will give you A MORE ACURATE …….assessment on your probable odds of getting a good horse, and

…… the probable outlay needed.

o..Where would you buy, given the following hypothetical situation?

.SALE ONE…..

…….200 horses…average $100,000…20 good horses pay their way

…….RATIO = 1 in 10

SALE TWO….

…….160 horses…average $50,000..8 good horses pay their way

…….RATIO = 1 in 20

SALE THREE..

…….120 horses…average $10,000…3 good horses pay their way

…….RATIO = 1 in 40.

p….This shows the best chance is to buy in SALE ONE, BUT you have

……to pay a lot more and if you don’t get a good horse, you will lose a ……much bigger heap of money.

……In SALE THREE, you have a much reduced chance of getting

……a good racehorse, and more than likely your lesser conformation, ……breeding and family specs will result in much lower resale value, ……probably compounded if limited performance results on the ……racetrack.

q…..having just gone through every horse in all the three sales, it is

……obvious there are dozens of horses in the PREMIER SALE which

……just should not be there.

……There are dozens of horses in the SELECT SALE that are …….exceptionally well credentialed. There are some good

…….horses in the FESTIVAL SALE, but they are quite rare, and you …….have to really hunt for them..

r……Whatever the assessment on pedigree, on sire, on dam or family,

……..the INDIVIDUAL IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, and balance,

……..action, type, speed, constitution, leg alignment and other factors

……..are always highly desirable attributes for an athlete to be able to …….run fast.

s……Assuming you get your selections down to a manageable SHORT ……..LIST, You need to go around the various studs where the big ……..drafts are.  If you leave your inspections until the sales, you will ……..be under a great deal more pressure, will make more mistakes, and ……..with distractions, will miss out some. I see too many people at the ……..sales making snap decisions on horses that a thorough previous ……..check has revealed serious faults.

……..Inspections at the sales should be second checks, being very ……..deliberate on your better selections, or finally eliminating some ……..border line cases from consideration.

t……This will enable you to double-like some, check all physical ……..strengths and weaknesses, weigh up the pros and cons of faults ……..and make a definite elimination of those that in your opinion to ……..not measure up to your standard of expectation.

u….. AFTER SELECTION ON SURFACE PEDIGREE, AND …….ASSESSMENT OF PHYSICAL TRAITS, THE SELECTION

…… OF COMBINED BREEDING PRINCIPLES IS WHERE A …….MAJOR DIFFERENCE CAN BE MADE.

v……Make sure your selections are GOOD QUALITY INDIVIDUALS ……..and then you need them to be COMPARED WITH hundreds

……..or even thousands of the absolute best gallopers because this will ……..ensure your pedigree has the essential Breeding Principles in

……..their pedigrees which are proven and show clearly what has ……..worked in the past.

……..They are an exceptionally good guide to what could work at the ……...highest level in the future.