Sunday, January 27, 2013

Chapter Thirteen-(2013)-Sires at Kakara


Yearling Sales, Champion Sires. Chapter THIRTEEN-(2013 series of articles) NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand


Below is a list of the 125 sires that have one or more yearlings in the main yearling sale which is at Karaka,
features 1492 yearlings and has seven sale days.

The sires are ORDERED on the 2ND COLUMN which shows the
Number of yearlings they have in the sale series.

The last three columns show the number of yearlings each
sire has in the three separate parts to the total sale.

The racing ability of each sire has not been added to the table, as this information is easily gained by obtaining
a set of the three catalogues & checking out that information


SIRE----------No.OfSW—TOTAL/Ylg--PremS---SelectS----FestivS


TigerPrawn------000------001-------x-------x---------001
Strada-A--------003------001-------x-------x---------001
Sirocco---------000------001-------x-------x---------001
Saperavi--------000------001-------x-------x---------001
Sandtrap--------011------001-------x-------x---------001
Publishing-A----000------001-------x-------001-------x
LeBecFin--------002------001-------x-------x---------001
KingOfRoses-----004------001-------x-------x---------001
IndyKing--------003------001-------x-------x---------001
IAmInvincible-A-000------001-------x-------001-------x
Husson-A--------002------001-------x-------001-------x
EagleMountain---000------001-------x-------001-------x
DangerLooms-----000------001-------x-------x---------001
Civics----------000------001-------x-------x---------001
Californ’Dane-A-001------001-------x-------001-------x
AstronomerRoy-A-000------001-------x-------001-------x
AlMaher-A-------015------001-------001-----x---------x
ChargeForward-A-009------001-------001-----x---------x
Galileo-A-------122------001-------001-----x---------x
MagicAlbert-A---015------001-------001-----x---------x
ManhattanRain-A-000------001-------001-----x---------x
Reaan-A---------000------001-------001-----x---------x
Shamardal-A-----042------001-------001-----x---------x
StreetSense-A---004------001-------001-----x---------x
Teofilo-A-------010------001-------001-----x---------x

The above 25 sires all have just ONE yearling entered in
The PREMIER, SELECT, FESTIVAL classifications of the
New Zealand yearling sales for 2013.

All the sires standing in AUSTRALIA have an “A” appended
to their name.

GALILEO is conspicuous because you can see in the first
Column which shows the number of STAKES WINNERS that each
sire has foaled, that he has a monumental total of 122 SW.
With 1245 runners, even with Champion racing ability, Multiple Champion sire proven ability, and the best of opportunities he is leaving more failures than successes.

We can calculate he is leaving ONE STAKES WINNER per 9.79
foals to race, which is still one of the best records around.


BelEsprit-A----013-------002-------001-----001-------x
AllAmericab-A--000-------002-------x-------002-------x
Danfive--------000-------002-------x-------001-------001
ElectronicZone—003-------002-------x-------x---------002
ExcellentArt-A-004-------002-------x-------002-------x
GallantGuru----001-------002-------x-------x---------002
HolyRomanEmp-A-020-------002-------x-------002-------x
JetSpur-A------003-------002-------x-------001-------001
Lonhro-A-------034-------002-------x-------001-------001
Shaft-A--------001-------002-------x-------002-------x
Spartacus------006-------002-------x-------x---------002
Zed------------000-------002-------x-------x---------002
NotASingleDou-A011-------002-------001-----001-------x
Onemorenomor-A-000-------002-------001-----001-------x
TaleOfTheCat-A-078-------002-------001-----001-------x
North'Meteor-A-000-------002-------002-----x---------x
Snitzel-A------010-------002-------002-----x---------x

Among the Australian sires in the list above which have had
2 yearlings entered in the NZ sales, we can see some highly
successful sires like:

Lonhro-(has left 34 SW)-433 starters,7.85%-(1 in every 12.73)
Tale Of The Cat-(78 SW)-1432starters,5.44%-(1 in every 18.38)
Holy Roman Emperor(20SW)-393starters,5.08%-(1 in every 19.68)
Bell Esprit,(13 SW)------512starters,2.53%-(1 in every 39.52)

Lonhro has the best % of SW to starters and also with 1 STAKES WINNER to every 13 starters, he is also the best of
this group in that respect,also.

CoatsChoice----003-------003-------x-------x---------003
Istidaad-------008-------003-------x-------x---------003

DukeOfMarmala-A000-------003-------001-----002-------x
Nicconi-A------000-------003-------001-----002-------x
BigBrown-A-----000-------003-------002-----001-------x
Bernardini-A---018-------003-------003-----x---------x

Duporth-A------000-------003-------003-----x---------x
StreetCry-A----057-------003-------003-----x---------x

Some big names in the above group with 3 yearlings.
Duke Of Marmalade and Big Brown were great Champions.
Bernardini-(18 SW)-259 runners-6.94%-(1 in every 14 runners)
Street Cry-(57 SW)-723 runners-7.88%-(1 in every 12 runners)


Align----------007-------004-------x-------003-------001
BattlePaint----000-------004-------x-------001-------003
Haradasun-A----001-------004-------004-----x---------x
Castledale-----003-------004-------x-------x---------004
Ekraar---------006-------004-------x-------003-------001 ElHermano------000-------004-------x-------x---------004
Nadeem-A-------006-------004-------x-------004-------x
Faltaat--------021-------004-------x-------003-------001
RedoutesChoicA-094-------004-------004-----x---------x
TimeThief-A----000-------004-------x-------002-------002
Choisir-A------045-------004-------003-----001-------x
Commands-A-----050-------004-------003-----001-------x
Exceed&Excel-A-055-------004-------003-----001-------x
Stratum-A------013-------004-------003-----001-------x

Choisir------45SW-(551runners)-8.16%--(1 in every 12 runners)
RedoutesChoice-94Sw-826 runners-11.38%-(1 in every 9 runners)
Faltaat------21Sw-379 runners-5.54%---(1 in every 18 runners)
Commands-----50SW-832 runners-6.00%---(1 in every 16 runners)
Exceed&Excel-55SW-847 runners-(6.49%--(1 in every 17 runners)



ChineseDragon—-000-------005-------x-------001-------004
GoldCentre-----000-------005-------x-------x---------005
MettreEnJeu----000-------005-------x-------x---------005
RaiseTheFlag---000-------005-------x-------x---------005
StReims--------000-------005-------x-------x---------005
DylanThomas-A—-000-------005-------002-----003-------x
Denman-A-------000-------005-------004-----001-------x
Remind---------000-------006-------x-------x---------006
FullyFledged---000-------007-------x-------002-------005
LuckyUnicornA—-000-------007-------x-------x---------007
ShinkoKing-----013-------007-------x-------x---------007
Towkay---------011-------007-------x-------003-------004
HenrythenavigA-000-------007-------004-----003-------x
FlyingSpur-A---086-------007-------006-----001-------x
NoExcuseNeeded-013-------008-------x-------005-------003
Rios-----------000-------008-------x-------x---------008
Danroad--------002-------008-------x-------004-------004
Duelled--------002-------009-------001-----x---------008
EncostaDLago-A-091-------009-------009-----x---------x

FlyingSpur—--86SW-1256 runners-6.84%-(1 in every 15 runners)
EncostaDLago-91SW-1280 runners-7.10%-(1 in every 14 runners)



Thano----------000-------010-------x-------002-------008
Libbrettist----000-------011-------x-------006-------005
Falkirk--------003-------011-------x-------010-------001
Starcraft-A----013-------011-------005-----006-------x
Edenwold-------000-------012-------x-------x---------012
RocDeCambes----000-------012-------x-------002-------010
MrNancho-------001-------012-------x-------001-------011
Cecconi--------000-------013-------x-------001-------012
Sufficient-----000-------014-------x-------005-------009
Fast'NFamous---001-------014-------x-------007-------007
Patapan--------001-------014-------x-------x---------014
DonEduardo-----009-------014-------x-------004-------010 Volksraad------058-------014-------x-------014-------x
FastnetRock-A—-039-------015-------015-----x---------x


Volksraad---58SW-853 runners-6.79%-(1 in every 15 runners)
FastnetRock-39SW-438 runners-8.90%-(1 in every 11 runners)
Notice 7X Champion sire Volksraad has fallen out of favour,
and has only Select Sale yearling, no Premier ones.
Fastnet Rock is a boom stallion, and has a great ratio.


CaptainRio-----018-------016-------001-----008-------007
BachelorDuke---006-------018-------002-----006-------010
BuffaloMan-----000-------019-------x-------004-------015
PerfectlyReady-000-------019-------x-------004-------015
SirPercy-------003-------021-------x-------012-------009
RoadToRock-A---000-------023-------003-----016-------004
SakheesSecret—-000-------024-------007-----014-------003
Guillotine-----000-------025-------001-----014-------010
ElusiveCity----021-------025-------001-----013-------011
AnySuggestion—-001-------026-------x-------006-------020
ThornPark------017-------026-------011-----015-------x
NomDuJeu-------000-------027-------004-----012-------011
Postponed------011-------028-------x-------009-------019
HighChaparralA-040-------028-------028-----x---------x
SwissAce-------000-------029-------002-----015-------012
Pins-----------046-------033-------033-----x---------x
Savabeel-------020-------033-------013-----019-------001


ElusiveCity—21SW-512 runners-4.10%-(1 for every 24 runners)
ThornPark---17SW-249 runners-6.88%-(1 for every 15 runners)
HighChaparral-40SW-586runners-6.82%(1 for every 15 runners)
Pins---------46SW-664 runners-6.92%(1 for every 15 runners)
Savabeel-----20SW-244 runners-8.196(1 for every 12 runners)


Alamosa--------000-------034-------008-----020-------006
RedGiant-------000-------039-------005-----017-------017
Thewayyouare---000-------040-------001-----028-------011

Alamosa, (oldest 2yo)Red Giant (yearlings)and Thewayyouare (yearlings)have not sired a SW yet because they are just starting out. But they have large representations of 34,39 and 40 yearlings respectively in each of these 3 sales.

They are well credentialed pedigree wise, are very good looking individuals, stand at very successful and well established commercial studs with a large client base.

These stallions were all standout racehorses. It is no wonder they have been afforded excellent opportunities at stud.

DarciBrahma----005-------044-------023-----021-------x
Zabeel---------143-------044-------044-----x---------x
Tavistock------000-------053-------014-----029-------010
Keeper---------023-------062-------015-----038-------009

DarciBrahma—-5SW-123 runners- 4.06%(1 for every 24 runners)
Zabeel----143SW-1339 runners-10.67%(1 for every 9 runners)
Keeper-----23SW- 393 runners- 5.85%(1 for every 17 runners)

Zabbel has an exceptional number of Stakes Winners and
An exceptional ratio.


O'Reilly-------058-------064-------047-----016-------001
Pentire--------036-------065-------025-----038-------002


O’Reilly—----58SW-850 runners-6.82%-(1 for every 15 runners)
Pentire------36SW-823 runners-4.37%-(1 for every 23 runners)


Iffraaj--------004-------069-------007-----048-------014
Mastercraftsma-000-------092-------054-----038-------x

The honour of the most commercial yearlings goes to Iffraaj
Who has 69 yearlings entered in the sales, and the new sire
Mastercraftsman who has a whopping 92 yearlings.

There has been some great management here. Iffraaj has been
well promoted as a virile horse and the sire of an exceptional number of winning juveniles.
Mastercraftsman was the Champion 2yo colt in England, where he won 7 races worth P1,236,275.

He follows in the footsteps of sires like StarWay, Kaapstad
and Danske at the same stud, to name a few there whose books were almost totally SW mares, SW producers or extremely commercial.

Helen and Les Pratt…  lpratt@clear.net.nz



Friday, January 25, 2013


Chapter TWELVE-(2013 series of articles)
NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand Yearling Sales, Champion Sires

TESIO PEDIGREES MATCHED WITH 2013 SALES YEARLINGS.


1…..Everyone who buys a horse wants some guarantee or
assurance that the animal they will buy or have bought will
have outstanding racing ability.

2….We have compared the three 2013 sale yearlings with some of TESIO’s best gallopers to provide us with another method to compare the purchase with a group of well known and highly successful gallopers.

3….TESIO was one of the greatest Thoroughbred breeders
of all time, and we collected 517 named pedigrees that he
was associated with.

4….127 of them were MULTIPLE STAKES WINNERS
……85 are listed with a STAKES WIN beside their name.
……274 (52.99%) are estimated to have paid their way.
……Exactly 41% of named foals were STAKES WINNERS.

5….TESIO WAS A GENIUS.
……HE USED SELECTION OF THE BEST STAMINA
BLOODLINES, (Valued soundness), used build-up and
Intensity and multiplication of the best ancestry.

6….We have selected 30 of the best known TESIO pedigrees.
……Then we compared the FIVE measurable line-breeding, intensity, build-up , multiplication breeding principles of these 30 outstanding gallopers with the 1492 yearlings catalogued in the Karaka 2013 PREMIER, SELECT and FESTIVAL sales.

7….Name……….Wins..FOUR..EQUAL..INT..INDEX..PRE

DELLEANA1925……8w…..44….. 382 ….. 7……21.625…82
DONATELLA1939….7w…. 39 …. 382……14….. 19.945…75
CAV.D’ARPINO2619..5w….27….  334 …..  4….. 25.078…72
TOULOUSE LAUTREC 7w..15….  270…… 6….   18.516…77
CRANACH                   16w…34…  330…… 8 …   23.281...100
EL GRECO1934-22      17w.. 39….  410……12…   20.141… 94
TRAGHETTO               15w…36…  349……  9…   21.109… 56
DONATELLO34-21      8w….46… .455…… 11…  19.500… 89
APELLE                        14w…18…. 231……  7…  20.250 … 66
JACOPA DEL SELLA   9w… 63…. 529……10…  19.719… 93
BELLINI1937-18          16w…55…. 488……  6…  21.031… 84
ANTONIO CANAL23   12w.. 27…. 411…… 13…  17.352… 73
BRAQUE1954-23          12w.. 24….  331…… 13… 20.281…84
NAVARRO1931             7w…30….  447……   7…  19.219…92
NOGARA1928              14w…26 …  273……   2… 21.938…60
NESIOTES923-26         15w…96 …. 450…… 16… 18.102…74
ROMANELLA               5wCh2yo 43.401…… 15…21.266 .. 85
NEARCO1935-24         14w… 27….  346……   2… 20.359…92
NIC.DELL’ARCA38     11w…34 .. .. 411……   6 …19.609…84
BOTTICELLI50-22       14w…18. ….355……   5… 21.430…86
TISSOT1953                   13w.. . 8…..  247……  5… 18.391…75
FAUSTA1911                 9w … 63….  404 ….. 18… 20.367…68
ASTOLFINA1945         14w….18….  .337……11…18.117…67
SCOPAS1919-18           7w… ..58….   429 ….. 8…20.031….90
RIBOT1952-51               16w…33……360……9…17.411…..67
TENERANI944-20         17w…23……370……9…19.797….88
TORBIDO1941-20         5w…. 25……368……10..19.758….77
BAYUK1927                  38w..  39……396……10…21.195…65
DAUMIER1948-18        13w .. 20…… 328 ……8…17.055…69
DUCCIA.Di.BUON20    8w … 56…….344…..12…23.516...100
 TOTALS………66….995……11168…273..286.905..2384
AVERAGE…..12.2--33.16--372.26--9.1-19.563---79

8…..All these 30 horses were really outstanding, exceptional racehorses.
They have averaged over 12 wins each, many in the very best races.

9….This gives a very good standard to compare with. We have added all the figures and found the AVERAGE for each of the five Breeding Principles.

10…
principle…..FOUR……EQUAL….INT….INDEX…….PRE
average……33.16-------372.26------9.1-----19.563--------79

premier……1 ylg---------0 ylg--------2 ylg---9 ylg--------12 ylg
441 ylg

select………1 ylg--------0 ylg---------4 ylg—13 ylg-------16 ylg
610 ylg

festival…….0 ylg--------0 ylg---------4 ylg----13 ylg------10 ylg
439 ylg

11………………………………………………………………................
We see only 2 yearlings out of 1492 match TESIO’S 4 method.
No yearlings out of 1492 match TESIO’S EQUAL method.
10 yearlings out of 1492 reach TESIO’S INT method average.
35 yearlings of 1492 reach TESIOS INDEX method average.
38 yearlings of 1492 reach TESIO’S PRE method average.

12….Having looked at the pedigrees that reach TESIO’S average, there are a dozen that have really impressive credentials
by pedigree and by breeding methods, and if they were really
impressive physical types, I would think these yearlings have
a really high percentage chance of being STAKES WINNERS.

Helen and Les Pratt….January, 2013..  lpratt@clear.net.nz





Thursday, January 24, 2013


Chapter ELEVEN-(2013 series of articles)
NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand Yearling Sales, Champion Sires
 

ASSESSMENTS FOR 2013 FESTIVAL SALE YEARLINGS

1….What tools do intending buyers have for assessing the POTENTIAL RACING ABILITY of these 439 yearlings?

2……An important one is the CATALOGUE that the Auctioneers have published showing:
lot numbers, colour, sex, stud, vendor and box number so the intending buyers can identify each yearling.

3….Very importantly, a catalogue page is devoted to giving brief details of the SIRE, his colour, year of foaling, his parentage, race record and success at stud.

4….The majority of the page is devoted to highlighting the race and breeding records of the first 3 dams in regard to number of foals produced, number raced, number that won races and especially written in bold type are the names of STAKES PERFORMERS, which gives an idea just how well
the first three dams have been in producing high class & very successful racehorses.

5….The yearlings can be inspected at the vendor’s property prior to sale day. This is important to sort out the yearlings that interest you, to give time to get clients on board, and to re-inspect on further occasions. Important that they are available for further viewing and checking and comparing with your other selections at the selling complex before and during the sale.

6….Trainers and conformation judges can inspect them, check their action by seeing them walk, can check their limbs for accuracy and also look for dozens of indicators that suggest speed, stamina, soundness, temperament, constitution.
This can be essential to making a really good decision & purchase.

7…Inspection can be an additive or elimination process depending on what the inspection reveals in ways of superior traits or negative traits which could eliminate that bottom quarter of these catalogued yearlings that for one reason or another are never going to get to the races.

8…Remember, just about every horse that races really well has
FAULTS of one kind or another. Really good experience and knowledge can quite often make a good judgement on whether
a fault could be within tolerable limits, and be unlikely to affect
the potential racing ability of the horse in question.

9…We’ve been surprised on many occasions where good judges
have bought horses with obvious faults, & a follow up has shown many times the horse showed limited racing ability in line with the combined pedigree and physical conformation expectation.

10..When talking to many, many people it is amazing how many just do not see obvious faults on the horse that they inspected, or bought and on occasions on the yearling in front of them.



11……What was the spread when the 439 yearlings were analyzed?

We’ve sorted them into those whose pedigree and crosses suggest they would probably not win a race, or have enough
indicators to win 1 race or two or three etc. up to STAKES WINNERS.

0wins, 0-1w,0-2w,0-3w,0-4w----------137 yearlings……31.20%

1win,1-2w,1-3w,1-4w-------------------110 yearlings……25.05%

2wins, 2-3w,2-4w------------------------82 yearlings……..18.67%

3wins,3-4w,3-5w-------------------------34 yearlings……...7.74%

4wins,4-5w,4-6w,4-7w------------------19 yearlings………4.32%

5wins,5-6w--------------------7 yearlings….1.59%

6wins,6-7w,6-8w-------------9 yearlings….2.05%

OPEN CLASS---------------19 yearlings…4.32%

STAKES WINNER--------20 yearlings…4.55%

We think those yearlings we have assessed with a potential to win 5 or more races, could possibly earn enough to pay for all their rearing, breaking, pre-training, racing, gear and spelling expenses.

THE FIGURES TELL US WE NEED TO LIMIT OUR SELECTIONS TO A REASONABLY SMALL GROUP,
WHICH THIS ANALYSIS FOR THIS SALE SHOWED US.
Keep your selections to .ONE HORSE IN EVERY EIGHT.

12…………………….SUMMARY……………………………
….55 yearlings have been given an OK rating out of 439.
This is 12.51% of the total on offer.

13….Our pedigree analysis gives us an initial inspection list of 55 horses , and it should be stressed that the best way to proceed would be to ignore the 5 and 6 win groups and concentrate on an even smaller list of the 19 OPEN CLASS rated yearlings and the 20 potential STAKES WINNERS group.

14….You may miss a good horse from this dropped off group, but there could be expected to be even more failures at each
lowered level or assessed group as you go down.

15….After checking out the two best assessed groups, then a good plan would be to go over the 16 lower rated horses and see if there is one or two really standout types with real character, swinging walk, exceptional conformation, intelligence
or athleticism.
That should give you a chance to find that really good horse if
there is one or two among that group. Just pick out the best.

16…Because the 39 yearlings that have been assessed as OPEN CLASS or STAKES WINNER POTENTIAL were just picked on pedigree principles, further tweaking is possible, AND NECESSARY by adding more ducks in a row to the standard you want your horse to have, and that should be to have a very high expectancy on physical conformation.

17…Some Trainers are selecting horses on good type, good balance, good growth, height, walking action, and as long
as they have highly successful sires, and plenty of black type along their dam line, then they sometimes get all the essential
crosses in the background and end up with a top horse occasionally.

18….Some pedigree people who have studied plenty of the best pedigrees and have found good crosses in the pedigree sometimes come up with a horse with the right physique, temperament, will to win, heart efficiency by luck and they sometimes come up with a really good racehorse.

19…It seems logical to assume that you need to combine the
best pedigrees, best breeding techniques, best conformation
and best individual. Don’t select on just one or two traits.

20…A suggestion would be to RANK the 39 yearlings into 4 GROUPS OF TEN, based on the PEDIGREE ANALYSIS,
with your best horses in the first group.

Horses can’t run on pedigree alone, so make sure they stand up as individuals in terms of power, balance, strength, reach, motor, temperament, heart and physiological efficiency.

21…Because you now have 4 lists of 10 yearlings all RANKED in order, when you go to check the physical strengths and faults it’s easy and much quicker to ELIMINATE FAULTY yearlings or DOUBLY LIKE yearlings that are superior by both pedigree, type, balance and accurate legs.

22….Another suggestion is to have your 40 yearlings arranged in order, and have about 10 SUPERIOR TRAITS and 10 FAULTS all listed in columns, so a few TICKS OR A POINTS SYSTEM would quickly SELECT the better ones or ELIMINATE those that have unacceptable faults.

23…..How did we arrive at our assessments?

We compiled every pedigree by adding the sire, then added his birth-date, his race and breeding record, before checking that this part of the pedigree was consistent and accurate.

After adding the dam, her date and breeding record, we continued on through the pedigree until we had the race and breeding record for the first 10 dams.

Then we compiled each pedigree to see if it compiled accurately,  did corrections until each one was as accurate as we could make it, and also checked to see if we had racing and breeding information for the first 62 ancestors, and if not, we found the
missing  parts and completed each pedigree.

24…..What principles did we use?

Firstly, we selected one of the five selected principles and went through every one of the 439 pedigrees to record this, then repeated the process 4 more times to record the other principles.

Finally we compared each pedigree, looked at the record of the parents, grand-parents and great grand-parents and combined that with the FIVE main principles that we had collated.

This then gave us an idea of the horses possible potential as a racehorse when we compared further soundness factors, speed factors, repeatability and other breeding principle indicators.


25……..What other principles are available?

An intensive study of pedigrees has revealed there are over 330
Principles of Breeding which can be identified and able to be measured.

Some of them need to be avoided because they have strong connections to lack of success. Just about every researcher and writer publishing statistics are coming to very incorrect conclusions because they possibly do not know or understand this phenomenon.

26….We have selected just FIVE of the most important ones here.

One gives a measurement on the amount of ancestor duplication or line-breeding in the pedigree.
Another one measures how often the main target ancestor affects the outcome.
The other three methods measure how three very different ways that intensity, intensification, and build up affect the pre-potency of the pedigree or individual.

27..What other principles are available at the sales?

a…Need to match the pedigree with the physical individual
b…There can be FAULTS, so essential to check balance, action, size, temperament, and especially leg alignment. It is really amazing just how many physical faults can adversely affect
what looks like an outstanding pedigree with every desirable
method or index, and the negation can turn a brilliant pedigree
into a very disappointing also ran.

c….Make a list of HIGHLY DESIRABLE FACTORS and look for all these superior traits which suggest good speed and racing ability.

28…….Pitfalls with some principles.

An intensive study into thousands of champion gallopers, thousands of great breeding sire and dams, thousands of average and many times more limited racing ability horses show conclusively that some principles have a polarizing affect when in combinations.

 Either outstanding ability or very negative outcomes can result  because Nature is always combining many principles at the same time.

29….Most people do not realize that CLOSENESS or DISTANCE or MULTIPLES all have different effects.

SEX of the animal has important consequences for many principles.

30…Three of the Breeding Principles above are examples of this.

The absolute best pedigrees mostly have extremely high indexes and Natures principle of random sampling of genes brings forth
combinations that can double the strength of fortuitous traits.

Or it can double up faults which can wipe out the possibility
of outstanding athletic ability, and result in a virtually worthless
animal for racing or breeding purposes.

31…….These intense breeding plans produce a RANGE of animals.
A FEW WILL HAVE  ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING BREEDING OR RACING ABILITY.

A lot will be quite good animals, BUT there will also be A LOT OF DOUBLE FAULT ANIMALS …WHICH HAVE TO BE CULLED.

Below is a table to show what the pedigree analysis for
each animal suggested to us. This is the starting point if
you are serious about buying a yearling to race later on.

32…………….0 wins assessment……….67 yearlings
……………….0-1 wins………………….62 yearlings
……………….0-2 wins…………………..5 yearlings
……………….0-3 wins…………………..2 yearlings
……………….0-4 wins…………………..1 yearling

20……The following yearlings had something worthwhile in their pedigree and we thought they had a chance to win a race.
NOTE….29% to 33% win a race each season in New Zealand

………………1 win assessment………….53 yearlings
………………1-2.wins……………………49 yearlings
……………….1-3wins…………………….7 yearlings
……………….1-4wins…………………….1 yearling

21……………2 wins assessment…………..35 yearlings
………………2-3wins……………………..41 yearlings
………………2-4wins………………………6 yearlings

22……………3wins assessment……………2 yearlings
………………3-4 wins…………………….19 yearlings
………………3-5wins……………………..13 yearlings

23……………4-5wins assessment…………15 yearlings
………………4-6 wins………………………3 yearlings
………………4-7 wins………………………1 yearling

24……………5wins assessment……………….
………………5-6wins………………………7 yearlings

25……………6wins assessment…………….1 yearling
………………6-7wins……………………….5 yearlings
………………6-8wins……………………….3 yearlings
………

26……………OPEN CLASS assessment……..19 yearlings

27……………STAKES WINNER assessment..20 yearlings

------------------------------------------------------------------------
28…..Having looked very carefully and very critically at
all the yearlings in this sale that will mostly be bought by
New Zealand Trainers and owners, we can recommend the
twenty yearlings which we have given a STAKES WINNER rating to.

29…..They all have some very impressive crosses, nice build-up,
excellent  intensity, high pre-potency and all the necessary
principles to excel in the best company, even though their breeding and ancestry may not be as good as the other 2 sales.

30…Those that pass a very critical physical examination should
be very good prospects for future racehorses. From experience,
about 10 yearlings should measure up. Do your homework, and
place a realistic value on each horse which you would be prepared to bid up to…

Good luck with your purchases from this sale!!


Helen and Les Pratt…… lpratt@clear.net.nz

Tuesday, January 8, 2013


Chapter TEN-(2013 series of articles)
NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand Yearling Sales, Champion Sires

WHAT BUYERS CAN EXPECT FROM THEIR 2013 PURCHASES.

1…….Many people at the sales every year are very optimistic and
just about every person spoken to can see something exciting or
outstanding in the shape, make, pedigree or breeding of every animal
they want or intend to buy. It doesn’t make sense to make snap judgements.

2……Surely it is better to gather a lot of facts, then process the
information properly to come up with sensible, logical choices
based on a large number of facts.  This should lead to more sensible decisions and hopefully, much better and more successful results.

It is better to be more conservative and very realistic.
Very good planning, organising a budget and getting the best
available advice should be a good mode of operation.

3……Yearlings are smaller than their full size maturity, less muscled and mature and this precursor  level does allow intending buyers to use their minds and imagination to fill in the gaps and picture the possible ongoing growth through into a big, strong athletic champion. It gives your imagination and dreams great
scope to magnify possibilities. More romance than facts. More
hoping than investigation into realistic probabilities, more bias
than actual comparing of measurable traits.

4……These ideas of grandeur do not have any proof or consequences attached for two or three years, so are usually not tempered by reality or common sense.

5……There is a lot of “HYPE” at the sales with big impressive,
first impression signs around. Plenty of action, activity, noise
and excitement. Plenty of food and refreshments.

6….BUT, THERE IS A HUGE VOID of worthwhile information to assist the buyers.

The auctioneers and promoters know that too many facts works against sales. If it’s not bold and easily seen in a few seconds in
a single glance, it slows down the process, and inhibits those sort
after bids and quick buying.

7….What is wanted is people frantically bidding against each other without thinking.  The best results are gained when people get keyed
up and emotional, and leave their smarts and logical behind.

8….All this is further compounded by such a short 3 minutes or so in the sale ring. The relaxed promotional and hospitality tents, good atmosphere of eating and drinking tends to lead to a stiff fortifying drink, and such a good comfortable feeling, that many people tend
to get carried away in the sale ring, and make a lot of bids buoyed
up by this hospitality.

9….If you are unprepared, and have not thoroughly examined the
yearlings you are interested in, then you are letting yourself
jump unprepared into a situation where over 90 % of the offerings will never pay their way on the racecourse. This means you are
bound to make more mistakes of judgment because less
information has been gathered to make a better decision.

10…It would be lovely to have a dollar for every impulse buy
we’ve seen at the sales. Hasty decisions make for long slow
future suffering of consequences. Let’s give all those professionals
out their real credit for some outstanding knowledge, hard fought
experience and hundreds of hours of diligent examination of
catalogues and yearlings before the sales, as well as dedicated
work over the week of the sales.

11….If you are not confident, competent or knowledgeable enough,
then go to those people who have the best track record and incorporate their help to assist you in your purchase of a yearling
that has an extremely strong possibility of winning at the top level.

12….We thought it would be quite a good idea to look at a
realistic way to determine just what the odds are for buying
a good racehorse from these sales.

13….Possibly, the best way to proceed is from a sound base of FACTS.  This led to us looking at just what the FIRST AND SECOND DAM OF EVERY YEARLING IN THIS 2013 SALE SERIES had done in it’s breeding record so far.

14…What the first 2 dams have already done should give an idea
of what to expect in the future. One flaw is that the first dams in
many cases may have very few foals that have not had time to
reach their full potential. Some do have full records, and the second dams mostly have very comprehensive records, but we think  the majority of foals from the first dams will not realistically improve their records, so we will have some figures as a base line to try and
understand just what the odds are if we intend to buy a yearling for racing purposes.

15….One of the BEST understandings that may come out of the study is the COMPARISON BETWEEN THE YEARLINGS
IN EACH OF THE THREE SALES.

16….To make this a fair comparison I’ve compared the FIRST
HUNDRED MARES FROM EACH OF THE THREE SALES.
This will give a very obvious comparison all based on 100, not
leading to confusion with different base numbers.

17……….The following table shows that the 1st and 2nd dams COMBINED produced 13 foals (6.5each) on average, 9 raced (4.5 each) on average, 7 were winners (3.5 each) on average
and 2.5 foals paying their way-(1.25 each) on average.

18…LETS CHECK OUT THE PREMIER SALE OF 2013
…(441 yearlings)

ONE HUNDRED of the  first and second dams produced:
........................................ 1,313 foals
……………………………947 (or 72.12%) of them have raced
……………………………706 (74.55% of raced) were winners
……………………………154 were STAKES WINNERS
……………………………..52 were STAKES PLACED
……………………………..47 were very good multiple winners
NB…These last 3 groups indicated 253 (19.26% of foals)
that raced from the 1st and 2nd dams PAID THEIR WAY ON THE RACECOURSE.

19….Notice that the close IN-BREEDING to SIR TRISTRAM in
Chapter 7 showed 27.40% of named foals did not get to the races.

A much bigger percent of 83.14% of named  3X3 in-bred STAR KINGDOM horses did not reach the races.

20……..Compare these in-bred matings with the above figures:
In-bred SIR TRISTRAM named horses showed 59.13% won a race.
In-bred STAR KINGDOM named horses showed 7.41% won a race.


21….It would worry me as a purchaser that only THREE QUARTERS of the foals from these K1 (Karaka 1) sale mares
that are going to average over $160,000, will be sound enough
or have the conformation to get to the races. These are the best bred mares all going to the best, highly credentialed sires, and given the
very best of rearing conditions.

22….I would be totally absorbed checking out every possible
leg alignment and other conformation fault that it would be possible
to evaluate. Get the experts working here. It could save you some injudicious purchases. At least start out with a horse that has a very
good chance of reaching the races.

23….For buyers intending to pay out their $160,000 or so average for this years PREMIER SALE , remember that 19.26% of yearlings that will pay their way on the racecourse ONLY REFERS TO earning enough to repay agistment, rearing, breaking, gear, shoeing, vets, training, feeding and race-day expenses.

24…..IT DOES NOT COVER YOUR EXPECTED outlay of possibly $160,000 plus expected in this years 2013 average.
You will have to be ultra lucky to get that back.

25….Lets now look at the 2nd sale, called THE SELECT SALE,
which offers the 2nd level yearlings for 2013-(610 yearlings).

26…..The FIRST 100 SELECT 1st and 2nd dams produced:
……………………………1278 foals
……………………………..875 (or 68.46%) of them raced
……………………………..608 (or 69.40%) of these were winners
………………………………88 were STAKES WINNERS
………………………………51 were STAKES PLACED
………………………………28 were good race winners
NB…These last 3 groups indicated 167 (13.06% of foals
that raced from the 1st and 2nd dams PAID THEIR WAY ON THE RACECOURSE.

27…….Now we have TWO SETS OF FIGURES TO COMPARE.

The SELECT 1st and 2nd DAMS had 35 less foals
The SELECT DAMS had 72 less foals to race
The SELECT DAMS had 98 less winners
The SELECT DAMS had 66 less STAKES WINNERS
The SELECT DAMS had 86 less horses that paid their way.

28………The figures lend themselves to a lot of discussion and interpretation, but overall the PREMIER SALE leads in all categories, but you have to pay significantly more.

29……Your quandary……..Do you pursue the chances of getting
one of the 154 STAKES WINNERS or do you deliberately pay a
lot less and see if you can get one of the 88 STAKES WINNERS
at the SELECT SALE LEVEL.

30….The trick is to miss getting a failure from either sale, because
the figures indicate a possible 80.74% failure rate to just repay
racing expenses for the PREMIER SALE, and an 86.94%
failure rate to cover just racing expenses from the SELECT SALE GROUP.

31…….THE FESTIVAL SALE, 3rd level yearlings for 2013-………(439yearlings).

The FIRST 100 FESTIVAL 1st and 2nd dams produced:
……………………………1181 foals
……………………………..761 (or 64.43%) of them raced
……………………………..531 (or 69.77%) of these were winners
………………………………43 were STAKES WINNERS
………………………………22 were STAKES PLACED
………………………………18 were good race winners
NB…These last 3 groups indicated 83 (7.02%) of foals
that raced from the 1st and 2nd dams PAID THEIR WAY ON THE RACECOURSE.

32…The average price for the FESTIVAL SALE for 2012 and 2011
was $15,300 and $12,072 respectively.

33……..The comparison shows a further big drop in foals produced, drop in winners and a huge drop in STAKES WINNERS from the
 1st 100 dams in each of the three sales..

34..SALE…….SW…….%SW.........%PAID WAY  

PREMIER= 154 SW –(19.26%)…253(19.26%)paid racing expenses
SELECT   =   88 SW –(13.26%)...167(13.06%) paid racing expenses
FESTIVAL = 43 SW –(  7.02%)…..83 (7.02%) paid racing expenses

Helen and Les Pratt…  lpratt@clear.net.nz