TOPIC TWO- 2011 NZ Karaka Yearling Sales

Topic two…..INBREEDING comparison between the 3 catalogues

…The averages for the 3 sales last year of $181,557…..$52,346
and $14,487 shows a huge difference in perception by the buyers
and a big willingness to pay substantially more for yearlings that
exhibit either better breeding by sire, by dam, by family or
relationship to numerous Stakes Winners.

Many years ago from the 40’ to 70’s The National Yearling Sales
were held at the other end of the Island down at Trentham.
Watching about 14 or 15 years of yearlings being paraded,
many perceptions were formed.

From memory, about 1 horse in every eight was “INBRED”, and
when inspecting many of them, there was a wide range in size, wide
range in muscle, wide range in leg faults, wide range in temperament.

Since those early days, it has been possible to compile a very long
list of “RULES” concerning INBRED Yearlings. There are some
BLATANT NO’S on some methods, on the sex of the yearling,
on possible racing and breeding potential, on position, on pathway,
on balance, on ancestor, on multiples and on distance.

Overall, INBREEDING has a much stronger effect than
LINE-BREEDING. I won’t define my definitions of each because
I notice there are some strong advocates on different methods that
are held by various people and these people are entitled to their
views, so this is not the time or article to elaborate into these areas.

However, OUTBREDS seem to have less faults, are usually better
grown, and have slightly less speed and approximate to the average
more closely on several measurable traits.

At Trentham, in the 60’s and 70’s, the yearlings seemed to be less
“bulky”. More of them were leaner, longer reined, and finer in their
build. Perhaps that was because most of the sires in New Zealand’s
in the 60’s and 70’s were middle distance staying sires and just a
handful of them were sprinting sires.

In the last decade, at Karaka, the sires have changed to more than
50% sprinting/miler sires, more after the pattern established by the
Australian , USA and some EnglishBreeders over the last 20 years
or so.

More yearlings today seem to be more muscular and more the
sprinting shape which is longer body, shorter in height, shorter neck,
shorter and wider gaskins, and more definition in body muscling.
Because more than half the ancestors back in the pedigree were able
to race well over mile and middle-distances, there are
COMBINATIONS of SPEED and STAMINA apparent in the
conformation of every horse.

This is why some horses mature and race successfully as early
sprinting 2yolds, some mature as late 2yolds like RHYTHM and win
past a mile, some are slow maturing sprinters like FAMOUS STAR,
or milers like POMPEII COURT. Some are late maturing 3yolds
that step up and win over Derby distances in late Summer and the
Autumn…Some are way out in front milers like SUNLINE that have
a high cruising speed, Some are class stayers that lead like
MAINBRACE, or have less initial speed and fly home late like
DALTAY, BERNBOROUGH, OCTAGONAL, or are dyed in the
wool 2 milers that have a great finish like KIWI and IL TEMPO,
which demonstates the majority stamina traits but mixed in is a
judicious blend of speed components.

If you SELECT extreme STAMINA TRAITS, your foals will get
slower, take longer to mature, and never be able to win a decent
race because they would have lost their speed component.

Conversely, if you put the fastest sprinters together, you run the
risk of maturing earlier, shortening your effective racing distance
to QUARTER HORSE distances, and the progeny will tend
to overrace early, and FADE before minimum race distances
are reached. "Speedy Quibs" lack stamina.

Assess all your matings in terms of balance, or lean towards
sprinting or staying, but retain the opposing traits because the
stand out gallopers have this pattern in varying degrees in
their pedigrees..

Feeding regimes have also become highly balanced and scientific for
promoting early growth and bulk for yearlings to be presented at
their maximum size, growth and shiny coated appearance to attract
the best buyers and the best prices..

It is very clear at the recent Karaka sales that buyers favour good
growth, good muscling, good type and are prepared to pay well for
well balanced, well handled althletic youngsters of good size..

Unfortunately , many tall, well grown youngsters are more in the mold
of staying horses that may lack competitive speed on the flat and are
more likely to do better over fences with maturity.

I was shocked to hear that one Bloodstock Agent about 20 years
ago bought about 46 horses over a number of years for a well
known racing owner. He obviously knew nothing about pedigrees,
linebreeding, or inbreeding, and that was borne out by a number
of short discussions and a few overheard ones.. He liked BIG,
STRONG yearlings, and sad to say, most of them LACKED
COMPETITIVE SPEED. Many of them took until late 3yo, 4yo
and in a few cases until 5yo before they got to the races because
of slow maturity. Some didn’t even impress enough in their training
to even get tried in a race.

He got a few placegetters AND 1 WINNER FROM HIS 46
SELECTIONS. Because of the long relationship, this person was
able to pull up with a float and a horse, and drop him off and
convince the owner that each horse was better than the last and
a potential Champion.

It is very hard to get good speed into a long legged animal, and you
need to check the pedigree for at least 3 speed components, and at
least two signs in the conformation department to give yourself
a chance of having enough speed within the horse’s stamina
framework to be able to win races.

Breeders breed for more speed, select from families concentrated in
Stakes winners and feed highly concentrated feeds to put well grown,
well muscled, well presented yearlings in the sale ring. Their experience
and ability is reflected in the very good $181,557 average shown
last year for the yearlings sold from the PREMIER SALE.

It is hard to be objective when comparing the 3 sales, although in my
opinion over the last 15 years at Karaka, there have been many well
grown, well prepared , good actioned yearlings in the SELECT and
FESTIVAL sales that were in advance of quite a considerable
number in the PREMIER SALE.

Many vendors have been hard done by in the past and not been
rewarded in the lesser sales. Quite a few PREMIER vendors have
been very fortunate in gaining large returns for poorer actioned,
poorer conformed youngsters. But there are some absolutely
superior animals at the top end. This is an artificial system placing
the most emphasis on selection of the best parents, best Families
and vendors have to adapt to the system in place if they want to
get a big return for their efforts.

The 10 Group 1 winners from PREMIER ($181,557 average) and
9 Group 1 winners from the SELECT sale (with its $52,346 average)
does not reflect the difference in prices paid. Some buyers may
have paid too much for their PREMIER pedigree, And some buyers
may have been more fortunate in their outlay at the SELECT SALE.


This article is put forward to educate buyers into knowing that there
are more OUTBREDS than INBREDS, That there is some effect
from duplicating ancestors close up in the pedigree of yearlings,
That INBREDS can result in a significant amount of speed., and
pertinent to note that over the weekend there Was a G1 race run
in NZ over a mile-(Anniversary Handicap) and the winner was
BOOMING, a horse Inbred 3x3 to great sire SIR TRISTRAM.

The other big race was the $1,000,000 Karaka Sales incentive race
for 2yo graduates on Sunday run over 1200m and was won by
FORT LINCOLN, a 2yo that was inbred 3x3 to multiple
Champion sire BLETCHINGLY.

Some INBREDS have fundamental faults that will necessitate their
CULLING or ELIMINATION. MOST INBREDS fail to race well,
because there are quite a few consistent rules which govern their
success or failure. That OUTBREDS can have higher LINE-
BREEDING levels than INBREDS. That CONSTITUTION and
DURABILITY can be affected by your breeding method.
That it is harder to breed a very good full relation to a top staying
galloper. That judicious INBREEDING or LINEBREEDING has
resulted in HUNDREDS of VERY GOOD SPRINTING/
MILER SIBLINGS

However, we can’t do justice to this subject in a few sentences,
because this subject is very involved, and there is enough information
and data to write at least 10 books.

To keep it simple, here are some charts to show the examples that
have cropped up in the 3 catalogues.
Notice I’ve shown all the incidences less than a 4x4 cross, plus those
that actually are bred with an ancestor cross in the 4th generation.
In these examples , ONE cross appears in the sire’s side of the
pedigree and ONE cross appears in the dam’s side.
We have not included a double cross in either the sires, or the dams
side of the pedigree. That is another principle altogether and falls
outside the parameters of this article.

Of course, be aware that if you add up the ancestor crosses in the
5th, 6th and 7th generation and give them a mathematical equivalent
value, then every yearling barring a couple of exceptions all have
more line-breeding than a double 4x4 cross.

An example here is the unbeaten Champion RIBOT-(16 wins) ,
He was bred by the incomparable breeder TESIO. A study of over
600 horses bred by Tesio, his Stud Partners or from strong double
crosses of his animals, we can see some masterful concentrations.

You need to take on board the often repeated assertations that
ancestors beyond the 3rd generation can have no affect as one of
the biggest MYTHS in breeding thoroughbreds.

TESIO was a master Breeder who had a tremendous insight into
pedigrees, especially regarding LINE-BREEDING, INBREEDING,
and some other complex methods.

He bred RIBOT-(16wins-3x Champion Sire), plus his sire
Tenerani-(17wins), Grandsire Bellini-(16wins), GGrandsire Cav'd'
Arpino-(Unbeaten), as well as Apelle-(14wins), Tofanella-(5wins)
El Greco-(17wins), Barbara Burrini-(6wins), and Romanella(5wins),
all of which appear in RIBOT'S pedigree.

Some others he bred among hundreds of Stakes Winners were:
Nearco-(14wins,Unbeaten), Astolfina-(14wins), Botticelli-(14wins),
Cranach-(16wins), Daumier-(13wins), Dehas-(47wins), Della
Porta-(17wins), Dominate-(46wins), Donatello-(8wins), Dore(37wins)
Fausta-(9wins), Grifone-(26wins), Ismone-(21wins),Nesiotes-
(15wins), Nogara-(14wins), Tommaso Guidi-(20wins), Traghetto-
(15wins), Trevisana-(17wins).

The point of this is the consistency of his methods when you examine
his pedigrees in depth because it reveals an amazing understanding
of both LINE-BREEDING and IN-BREEDING.

RIBOT has been quoted countless times an an OUTBRED, because
he has no line-breeding cross in his pedigree in the first 5 generations.
[NOTE...to finish later]

When analyzing the possible future racing ability of your yearling,
you need to assess the SIRE and DAM completely in terms of racing
ability, speed/stamina, and pre-potency ..
Also look very carefully at the effects of the crosses in the sire, the
dam, and all crosses in the yearling.

Studying full pedigrees of thousands of Champions, Millionaires
and Stakes Winners against an even greater number of lesser
ability horses, it seems conclusive that there are significant principles
that multiply your chances of selecting a good racehorse.

There are forums that bitterly fight over the value of breeding methods
and principles, and they manage to completely mystify most people.

The biggest problem I see are the dozens of times that these
“researchers” have come to a wrong conclusion, used insufficient
data, have not gone far enough, or have missed a main point that
the data should have revealed..

Listen to them all, but make your own mind up. It is not easy. It’s
complex and you’ll make a lot of mistakes, but keep learning.

Here are 3 tables to show the numbers of INBREDS and 4x4
horses in each of the 3 catalogues.

INBRED YEARLINGS The first cross appears in
the sires side of the pedigree. The second cross in the dam's.

CROSS…….PREMIER…….SELECT……….FESTIVAL
1x3…………1………………..0……………….0
2x2…………1……………….0……………….0
2X3…………1………………0………………….1
2X4…………1………………6…………………1
2x5…………0………………..0………………….1
3x2…………0……………….1…………………1
3x3…………19……………….19……………….18
3x4…………38……………….37………………15
4x2…………1…………………1………………..0
4x3…………13………………29………………13………
4x4…………90……………….89……………….50
5x2…………1………………….1………………0


PREMIER SALE……shows 166 out of 503 have a duplication
within 4 generations.= 33%
SELECT SALE…….shows 183 out of 626 have a duplication
within 4 generations = 29.2%
FESTIVAL SALE….shows 100 out of 419 have a duplication
within 4 generations = 23.8%

PREMIER SALE…..CLOSER THAN 4x4
…….76 yearlings………15.00%
SELECT SALE…….CLOSER THAN 4x4
…….96 yearlings………15.01%
FESTIVAL SALE….CLOSER THAN 4x4
…….50 yearlings………11.93%

It would be very beneficial if someone had the time to accurately
report on the size, shape, make, temperament, leg alignment,
constitution, action, overstep, length of stride, hind quarter shape,
gaskin length, parrot teeth, ability to eat and other factors to give
Breeders and buyers really worthwhile information on which to
make good breeding decisions and good purchasing decisions.

Some of the above mating plans show the breeders and buyers
are very unaware of possible and probable outcomes for many of
the methods being used. There is a huge wastage that could be
avoided if Industry resources were able to identify all these
INBRED YEARLINGS for the last 15 years, classify them on
each method, and then show the racing class of every animal.

I’m sure most breeders and most buyers would be very
surprised at the results.