TOPIC THREE-PERFORMANCE in 2011 Karaka Yearling Pedigrees

TOPIC THREE…PERFORMANCE.

1…..One of the fundamental BREEDING PRINCIPLES is LIKE
....... BEGATS LIKE, or a CHIP OFF THE OLD BLOCK.

2…..That means that if the parents, grandparents, or other near
ancestors have really outstanding racing ability, then the foals or
progeny could be expected to also have inherited some of this
really good racing ability.

3…..However, there are lots of reasons why this doesn’t work
out in practice.
…….a…Perhaps one parent was a sprinter and one a stayer, and
by ancestry and breeding methods they are incompatible from the
viewpoint of having enough speed to win races
…….b…One or other of the parents has limited pre-potency,
and this would negate upper level ability
…….c…A strong and close ancestor cross resulted in a double
up of a mutual background fault and the horse has ended up
with a crooked leg, spider leg bones, a deformed foot, bad leg
alignment by way of turning in or out, back at knee, off-set knees,
paddle action, upright or long weak pasterns, porous bone, lack
of reach, or lack of constitution.
.…….d…The progeny was too small, or too big, unsound,
or poorly trained.
…….e….One of the biggest faults is temperament, where horses
lose condition, are very nervous, and lack the mentality to cope
with sprinting and the many stresses of racing.

4…..How do you know if your foal has good racing ability in all
of it’s background ancestors?

……There are many yearly publications that you can consult, but
first you would need to compile a pedigree of your foal and hunt
for the racing record of each ancestor in turn.

…… After 25 years of putting race records into our data base,
we now find we can very quickly compile just about any pedigree in
NZ or Australia and have a racing or breeding record for just about
every one of the first 62 ancestors which appear in a horse’s pedigree.

……This is invaluable in assessing yearlings, foals, matings, and
un-raced horses regarding their potential as future racehorses.
It now means that the pedigree is not just a LIST OF NAMES,
but can be assessed in terms of SPEED, in terms of STAMINA,
CLASS, in terms of PERFORMANCE, in terms of SUPERIOR
BREEDING MALES and SUPERIOR BREEDING MARES.

5….Most countries have dozens of sales each year, and it is
possible to find mention of your horses’s family in one of these
catalogues. One difficulty is that, most times only the sire, and
perhaps the first 3 dams are mentioned in these, so limited
information is sometimes a problem to overcome.

6…If you can get hold of much older catalogues, then more of the
background could be filled in.
….Referring to Stallion Registers will give the Sires race record,
plus his parents, and some mares along his dam line.

7…The internet can find you many more if you GOOGLE an
ancestor’s name.
…..A good site which can help is the PEDIGREE QUERY.
…..If your horse is in North America, there are DISKS or
CD ROMS available from AMERICAN PRODUCE RECORDS
which can help you extensively and give a very comprehensive
coverage of racing records for ancestors in your horses’s background.

….Over the years, most people interested in breeding and pedigrees
build up a Library of books, and there are lots of references to
horses’s racing records in many of these books.

8…Once you have filled in the performance in your horses’s
ancestry, you will likely find better and better performed ancestors
as you go back further into each generation. If you compare the
difference in the enclosed tables at the end of this article between
3 generation pedigrees and 5 generations, you will see what that is.

Generally, breeders try and breed from the best racehorses,
because they believe that horses that are superior racehorses
would be much better at reproducing their own quality, than horses
that didn’t have any ability, or were just moderate race horses.

There are at least three principles at work here, and the end result
is that fewer horses appear in the pedigree each further generation
you go back, and this can be verified by counting the number of sire
ancestors that appear in the pedigrees of all the sires that appear in
a STALLION REGISTER, for example.

There is a QUALITY or ELITISM aspect where only those with
superior traits hold a place in background generations. Competition
is so tough that only the best genotypes survive. This phenomenon
has occurred in the human race where geneticists tell us that the
male Y Chromosome of all humans alive today show by their
markers that every one of us trace back in an ever decreasing male
line to a common single male ancestor that lived around 59,000
years ago. By a process of elimination, competition, and survival
of more suitable traits, he has outlasted all the possibly hundreds
of thousands of other Human males that were alive at the same
time that he lived.

The same thing has happened in the horse world, and in reference
to the Y Male Chromosome , from hundreds of thousands of male
foals born each year, only a few hundred of the better or best ones
are retired to stud each year. When a list of their own sires is
compiled, less than half the names have survived because
outstanding stallions like St Simon, Hyperion , Nearco , and
Northern Dancer have appeared which totally dominate their
contemporarys as sires, so MOST of their best sons are retired to
stud in the hope that they will emulate the outstanding success of
their super sire.

After a few generations, the Sire Lines narrow down to about 9
main lines, and further back to the THREE lines of the DARLEY
ARABIAN, BYERLEY TURK, and GODOLPHIN BARB.

These stallions were part of an original nucleus of over 370 imported
or Oriental stallions, and for one reason or another, their best sons,
grandsons and great grandsons outperformed the descendents of
the others and dominated, replaced, or superseded the other ones.

The process is ongoing, and over the last two hundred or so years,
the DARLEY ARABIAN male line descendents have moved from
less than 20% market share to over a 93% dominate share of the
male line.

Given enough time in the future, it is expected that the DARLEY
ARABIAN should eclipse the other two minority sire lines and
become the only sire line left.

One of the big and most successful breeding principles in stallions
is where a really outstanding combination of ability occurs in both
the paternal sire and maternal sire of the stallion concerned.

The examples below show a few examples which have produced
some of the breeds great sires.

HYPERION-.9w-Derby,StL….by Gainsborough-5w-Derby,2,StL
from .Selene-16wins……......by Chaucer-8w
NORTHERN DANCER-14wins ………….by Nearctic-….21w
from.-daughter of ……Native Dancer-21wins
NEARCO-14 wins,………… by Pharos-14wins,
from Nogara-14wins daughter of…….. Havresac-9wins
RIBOT-…16wins………….by Tenerani-….17wins
.from Romanella-5w, daughter of El Greco-14wins
NATIVE DANCER…..-21wins ………. .By Polynesian .-21wins .
from daughter of ……Discovery-27wins
MAN O'WAR .20wins, …………by FairPlay-.10w,
.from daughter of………. Rock Sand-16wins
GALOPIN-…10wins, …………by Vedette-….8wins
from daughter of ………The Flying Dutchman-14wins


9….The Catalogues for the 2011 Karaka Yearling Sales show a
huge difference in BLACK TYPE winners and producers between
the PREMIER, SELECT and FESTIVAL Catalogues.

10…However, there is not a great deal of difference in the other
parts or throughout all ancestors in the pedigree.

PREMIER….4.072….1st 14 ancestors…..
11 of 503 yearlings have an average index over 6wins per ancestor
SELECT……3.994….1st 14 ancestors…..
13 of 628 yearlings have an average index over 6wins per ancestor
FESTIVAL…3.958….1st 14 ancestors…..
13 of 492 yearlings have an average index over 6wins per ancestor

The above table shows there is a slight but significant difference in
favour of the PREMIER SALE where the first 14 ancestors of all
the 503 yearlings average just over 4 wins each. The SELECT SALE
shows a slightly lower average just under 4 wins per ancestor and
the FESTIVAL SALE is lower again.

I notice that there are 11 yearlings in the SELECT, and 13 each in
the SELECT and FESTIVAL which have quite a high average
winning rate for their first 14 ancestors and it would be logical to
assume that more ability in all their ancestors would give them a
greater chance of having better racing ability themselves.

11….Therefore, if I was selecting a yearling, I would SHORTLIST
these yearlings that have a higher average performance across all
their ancestors, then check them out on all the other good breeding
principles you would like to see in your pedigree.

Of course, all the pedigree work is useless if the yearling does not
match up on CONFORMATION.
In that respect, he would have to have good leg alignment, and if not,
would the fault be too big a handicap to soundness, or would it
stop the horse galloping right up to its pedigree potential?

Look at balance, the speed traits in its conformation, it's type,
the smoothness, accuray and length of its action when walking,
condition, its eating potential, muscling , constitution and all the
other requirements needed to become an elite athlete.

12…PERFORMANCE OUT TO 5 GENERATIONS WHICH
INCLUDES THE FIRST 62 ANCESTORS.

If information is gathered on ALL 62 ANCESTORS OUT TO
5 GENERATIONS, this would probably be a more telling method
of assessing a yearlings future racing potential.

If the yearling is the product of many generations of horses that
that had outstanding racing ability, then there is more chance that
these traits will get passed on.

If the sire, dam and maternal grandsire don't have superior racing
ability, where would you expect your yearling to get superior
racing ability from?

13…Nature would surely reward progeny from a superior
background compared to yearlings that have undistinguished
ancestors, much lessor performance or ability, and a much lower
average winning statistic over all its ancestors.

14…A study of many pedigrees seems to support the belief that
Nature rewards foals/yearlings that have superior racing or breeding
ancestors, by perhaps delivering better constitutions that will
withstand the stress of racing, and where the best Breeding Methods
are also present this would tend to generate or encourage SPEED,
which would give more chance of being able to win races, if the
superior frame, temperament, action, muscling and physique are
also passed on in a lucky shuffle from the superior ancestors.

15
PREMIER….6.188….1st 62 ancestors…..
9 of 503 yearlings have an average index over 8wins per ancestor
SELECT……6.106….1st 62 ancestors…..
21 of 628 yearlings have an average index over 8wins per ancestor
FESTIVAL…6.059….1st 62 ancestors…..
10 of 492 yearlings have an average index over 8wins per ancestor

Again, these yearlings that have a higher index representing more
ability in the background ancestors of their pedigree select
themselves as the best prospects for future racing potential.

In the tables there are the 9 yearlings in the PREMIER SALES,
21 in the SELECT and 10 in the FESTIVAL sale which would be
good subjects to investigate fully to find that elusive top galloper.

16…It would be a great idea to find the 2 or 3 months of full time
intense investigation to gather the information into the last 10 years
of sales and see just how good this method was in selecting out the
best gallopers.

BUT, who has the knowledge, or time, or funding to undertake
such a mammoth and daunting task?

We spent over 3 months of unpaid time while working on our
normal paid work in gathering over 7,700 Stallions records
concerning the number of STAKES WINNERS they have sired.

This RANKS all the sires in the world and opens up a huge area for
study. It also allows for another dimension in comparing pedigrees.

It allows the grouping of sires to see the difference in their makeup,
and principles that assisted them.
There is so much money being invested in Bloodstock, in breeding
and in racing, and the huge investments means that failures in
selection will result in a huge loss of money.

All the more reason for prospective buyers to use as many positive
and proven ways of selecting better animals as possible.

17….LETS LOOK AT THE MALE AND FEMALE RACING
DIFFERENCE BACK IN THE PEDIGREE.

The first tables above show 14 ancestors which are both MALE
AND FEMALE out to 3 generations.
The second tables are more comprehensive and shows ALL 62
MALE and FEMALE ancestors out to 5 generations.

Because sires back 30, 40 and 50 years ago used to serve 40
mares in a season , the selection level was ONE STALLION
to about 50 mares at the higher levels.

NOW, sires do Northern and Southern Hemisphere seasons,
serve HUNDREDS of mares in a season SO A MUCH HIGHER
SELECTION DIFFERENTIAL can and does operate.

The best stallions are now generally Group 1 winning racehorses.
The selection process places an emphasis on the highest level, and
only the really outstanding male gallopers need be used.

The result is that most foals being born are by Group 1 winning
stallions from daughters of Group 1 Stallions.

Thirty years ago MAIDEN 1200m races were won in 1minute 11
seconds or 1m 12 seconds. Nowadays, on fast tracks here in
New Zealand, MAIDEN 1200m races are being won in under
1m 10 seconds.

It costs more to import these horses, Stud Fees are higher, BUT
STAKES have only gone up 5 fold, compared with Stud Fees over
8 fold. The BIGGEST INCREASE IS IN TRAINING FEES.
THESE HAVE GONE UP 20 FOLD. It is very rare to make racing
pay for the owner today, so he has to be extra careful with
conformation, with pedigree, with trainer. NZ TRAINING FEES
are getting close to the high daily rates of Australia, but their average
stakes are MANY, MANY times higher than the NZ level.

If 100 mares are utilized for stud duties for one top male galloper,
then all these mares cannot be expected to be as outstanding a
galloper as he is.

18…This means your greatest SELECTION GAIN would be in the
dam of your yearling.
There are more than 5 ways you can add to the value of your yearling,
or to the pre-potency, or to the speed generated in your yearling.

This is also where Champions, Great Broodmares and Great Sires
get their X factor from. My advice is to throw out the X Factor
from the Big Heart Theory. A big study we did over 20 years ago
shows clearly the value to at least 3 special groups if you look
in this area.

19….Back in the 1800’s , late 1880’s , early 1900’s and later time
frames there have been several dozen individuals who have had
extraordinary success. A careful study of their methods show big
repeatability factors concerning their mares, and an extraordinary
amount of success compared with other Breeders of their time.

20…In New Zealand we have some highly successful breeders
who deliberately sought the best or most successful families.
Foal for foal deals were made, Partnerships were formed and many
innovative deals were made to ensure the best mares were obtained,
the best families were acquired or members from families with a
current high class Champion were acquired, or members of families
where BLACK TYPE PREDOMINATES were actively pursued.

HERE IS A TABLE SHOWING JUST THE FIRST 31 MALE
ANCESTORS IN THE YEARLINGS PEDIGREE

PREMIER….9.377….1st 31 ancestors…..
11 of 503 yearlings have an average index over 12 wins per ancestor
SELECT……9.120….1st 31 ancestors…..
19 of 628 yearlings have an average index over 12 wins per ancestor
FESTIVAL…9.032….1st 31 ancestors…..
16 of 492 yearlings have an average index over 12 wins per ancestor

The above table is the result when all the FIRST 31 MALE
ANCESTORS OF EACH YEARLING in each
of the 3 sales is checked and compared with each other.

A check was made of all the sires in BOTH THE SIRE’S SIDE
AND THE DAM’S SIDE of the pedigree so represents the
COMPLETE PEDIGREE. All ancestors were checked,
and compiled, and missing records found.

There is a SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE between the 3 sales.
PREMIER average 9.377 wins for all 31 male ancestors,
SELECT average is 9.120 and FESTIVAL average is 9.032


HERE IS A TABLE SHOWING JUST THE FIRST 31 FEMALE
ANCESTORS IN THE YEARLINGS PEDIGREE

PREMIER….3.200….1st 31 ancestors……
3 of 503 yearlings have an average index over 5 wins per ancestor
SELECT……3.290….1st 31 ancestors…..
13 of 628 yearlings have an average index over 5 wins per ancestor
FESTIVAL…3.280….1st 31 ancestors…..
18 of 492 yearlings have an average index over 5 wins per ancestor

Notice the difference when the FIRST 31 FEMALES or MARES
in each yearlings pedigree are compiled, checked, found & corrected.

For some reason they are in the REVERSE ORDER to the sires
for the 3 sales. The MARES or FEMALE ANCESTORS in the
SELECT and FESTIVAL sales have a higher Number of average
winners over 5 WINS than the more highly selected PREMIER
SALE which is quite a surprise.

This method adds another important dimension to checking yearling
pedigrees. It is more thorough and complete than the Catalogue
page which is usually just 2 sires or 3 dam generations deep.

PERFORMANCE should be used in conjunction with
CONFORMATION

The INDIVIDUAL should be assessed in dozens of ways, looking
for strengths and weaknesses.

PEDIGREE BREEDING METHODS are also vitally important,
and when applied comprehensively can clearly separate
POTENTIAL FOR OUTSTANDING ABILITY against
WON’T PAY THEIR WAY HORSES.