Topic One- 2011 NZ Karaka Yearling Sales

NZ KARAKA Yearling Sales- 2011.-
(FACTS, RISKS, FIGURES AND SUGGESTIONS)

TOPIC ONE…APPLY SOME PRINCIPLES TO BUYING YOUR YEARLINGS.

1…It seems just like yesterday since all the excitement and drama of
......the 2010 National Yearling Sales at Karaka.
…..Its a hive of activity at the sales complex and on farms as Vendors
......are extremely busy .again for 2011 in their final endeavours to
..... prepare and present their yearlings at this years NZ National
.....Yearling Sales at Karaka..

2…The sales include 1622 yearlings, representing the best commercial
......yearlings from NZ breeders and noticeable are a small but
......increasing number bred in Australia.

3….The three catalogues are now in the hands of prospective buyers
.......and sale dates are:

PREMIER SALE-(503 yearlings).31 Jan, 2011 & 1 Feb, 2011.
SELECT SALE-(626 yearlings)…2nd, 3rd, and 4th Feb, 2011.
FESTIVAL SALE-(491 yearlings)…..…6th and 7th Feb, 2011.

4…..Last year NZ bred horses won a record number of STAKES
.......RACES in Australia , and the indications are that Australian
.......Trainers and buyers will be very keen again this year to buy the
.......best bred and best physical yearlings from this years offerings.

5….Despite the continued financial recession in NZ and Australia
.......flowing from yet another financial crash of the volatile USA
......Stock Market, there is an expectancy that the last 4 previous
......years figures shown below will probably be achieved again.

2007>>>1023 yearlings sold for $80,787,200- average of $79,546
2008>>>1171 yearlings fetched $111,150,000- average of $94,918
2009>>>1199 yearlings made $73,901,200..an average of $62,239
2010>>>1129 ylgs changed hands for $93,412,400- av/of $82,876

6…..New Zealand Bloodstock informs at the beginning of their
........catalogue that their Company has sold 21% of the yearlings
........auctioned in Australasia over the last 5 years, .yet can claim
........40% of the Group I winning graduates in the last 4 seasons.

……Last year alone, they had 23 Group 1 winning graduates that
....... won 27 Group 1 events. The .PREMIER SALE produced 10,
........SELECT SALE produced 9, FESTIVAL SALE produced 1.

7….Historically, the PREMIER SALE presents the best sires, best
.......dams, best dam lines, and best conformed yearlings which are
.......organized, arranged and show-cased to attract the biggest
.......buyers and sell at the highest prices, and this has been
.......successfully accomplished each year.

8….Averages for yearlings SOLD at the 3 designated sales are:

............2008…PREMIER….387-average of $199,265
............2009…PREMIER….366-average of $145,710
............2009....SELECT........456-average of $37,566
............2009....FESTIVAL....375-average of $11,997
............2010…PREMIER….362-average of $181,557
............2010....SELECT........483-average of $52,346
......…..2010....FESTIVAL....328-average of $14,487

…….No wonder there is a huge clamour by vendors to get their
........yearlings into the PREMIER sometimes called the KARAKA 1,
........or K1 Sale.
…….Last year the KI..(KARAKA 1) sale averaged $181,557…
.........and this would mean a healthy profit for their Vendors on the
.........majority of their yearlings which are mainly sold to a strong
.........overseas buying bench.
……The vendors not fortunate enough to gain entry into the K1
........sale mostly were given an option to sell in the K2 SELECT
........sale. This would be judged on the breeding of the yearling,
........the vendor's selling record, the 2nd tier sire rating, or lack
........of Black Type along the dam line.
........ Those yearlings last year that ended up .in the SELECT-(K2)
........ sale exposed their owners to a much lower average of $52,346.

……This meant that nearly a third would run a risk of not making a
.........profit after the big ongoing expenses which have increased
.........quite dramatically over the last few years.

…….Those relegated to the FESTIVAL-(or K3) sale in 2010 with
......... a very low average of $14,487 means that nearly a half of the
......... vendors would run a risk of not making a profit after the
..........serving fee, mare agistment, foaling, rearing, foal feeding, sales
......... prep, sale entry, sale costs, and Auction commission are taken
..........into account.

9….EXPECTANCY FOR EACH CATALOGUE….

......Although there is some consistency of results from season to
......season, fluctuations still take place.
......Therefore any figures can only be a general guide.

10..If we look at 3% of the horses racing becoming Stakes Winners,
......and about 7% paying all racing and rearing expenses, figures for
..... the 3 catalogues would look something like this.

……………….PREMIER……...SELECT……….FESTIVAL
………………...503…yearlings…...626……………491
3%SW……..…....15…yearlings….....18…’…………13
7%PAY WAY......35…yearlings…….39………..……41

11..A more meaningful way is to think of the first 100 yearlings in
..... the sale parading past you and see if you can pick out the
......THREE that could become STAKES WINNERS or the 7 that
...... could PAY THEIR WAY.

12..Don’t forget you or your group will also have to front up with
.....possibly more than the 2010 PREMIER.. average of $181,557…
.....SELECT average of $ 52,346 or FESTIVAL average of $14,487

13.Then there is the Auctioneer commission to pay, Government GST
.... tax to add, and anywhere between $10,000 and $14,000 for
....each of the next THREE years or so, to cover agistment, floating,
....feeding, gear, breaking, gelding, vets, farrier, pre-training, trials,
... trainers fees, track fees and race-day expenses.

14.All these factors are the reasons why so few horses pay their way,
.... AND WHY YOU NEED TO MAKE SURE YOU GET
.....EXPERT AND EXPERIENCED HELP ON PEDIGREE
.....MATTERS, TYPE, SUPERIOR CONFORMATION, FAULTS,
.....BALANCE, SPEED, STAMINA, ATHLETICISM and the
.....horse’s ACTION.

15.Don’t forget that pedigrees choc full of Stakes Winners PROMISE
....ten times more that they deliver.
....Or, excellent breeding, action, size, and conformation only work
....out successfully about ONE TIME IN TEN.

16.One year we visited Laurie Laxon’s Maungatautari property and
....while seeing Melbourne Cup winner Empire Rose , we talked
....about numbers of well bred horses that did not reach their
... pedigree promise regarding racecourse potential.

17.He said he only took in the best bred yearlings with the best
....possible sires, dams and families, and while going down the aisles
... of well bred horses which he reeled off by their outstanding
.... pedigrees, he keep emphasizing that the majority, or about 9 out
....of 10 would be eliminated from the stable in due course, mainly
.... because they would be too slow, had bad action, or wouldn’t
.....try hard enough.

18.If you buy 10 yearlings from the PREMIER Sale, and you manage
....to get your ONE good horse then you may run the risk of
....LOSING a huge amount of money, unless your really good
.... purchase wins more than $2,300,000 to pay all the expected
.....costs for 10 horses over 3 seasons.

19.Your good horse from 10 yearlings purchased for the average at
.... the select sale would have to earn about $900,000 to get into
.... the black. Look for a $500,000 earner from the FESTIVAL
.....Sale to break even on 10 randomly selected yearlings.

20.An intensive look at the pedigrees of 2109 MILLIONAIRE
.....EARNING RACEHORSES that we have collected over the last
.....few years and 65,777 REALLY GOOD RACEHORSES shows
.... that when about TEN really good breeding principles are applied
.....to your selections, they can dramatically increase the chances of
.... getting a racehorse with very good racing ability that could PAY
.... IT’S WAY.

21..Allowing for conformation defects, unsoundness , problems with
..... breaking, education, feeding and training, and intensification of
..... pedigrees which will all tend to negate good selection, breeding
......and other principles, we think about a 25% success rate could
..... be achieved if really careful and thoughtful selection is practiced..

22..You need to be aggressive in applying the principles that are
......continually found in the very best pedigrees.
23..You need to be exceptionally diligence in applying experienced
......checking of conformational strengths & weaknesses.
24...You need to be in the hands of Trainers that are consistently
.......and currently training Stakes Winners.
25...You need to be able to COMPARE every yearling in a sale in
.......dozens of ways to facilitate elimination.
26...You need to target TYPE for SPEED, and/or STAMINA for
.......specific distances, tracks or valuable races.
27...Put a premium on action, balance, leg alignment, intelligence
.......and athleticism.
28..You need to SHORT LIST your selections , keep your purchases
......DOWN to about 1 BEST ONE in every 100 checked.
29..You need to be able to apply RACING PERFORMANCE to
...... all ancestors , & work on ability rather than hope.