Chapter Three-(2013 series of articles)

NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand Yearling Sales, Champion Sires

2011 – Filly & Mares Turf -Prize money=$2,381,000 -Nov 4, 2011

1….7 furlongs…1m23.47…..won by 1 ¼, head.

2….There are some very good race fillies here.

-----------------------------Musical Romance…15wins19p$3,140,200

-----------------------------Switch……………..10wins$2,498,200

-----------------------------Her Smile………….4w$427,860

-----------------------------Pomeroy’s Pistol…..5w$643,100

-----------------------------Turbulent Descent…13w$2,099,100

Fin Position----Horse---- Level-------Close--------Bal-----Blue--Chains

1-MUSICAL ROMAN’--15.125**4--4x5**1=---55**4--4**4=--655**3

2---SWITCH--------------19.406**1--4x5**1=----63**2--8**1---675**2

3---HER SMILE----------18.070**2--5x7**5-----62**3--7**2---726**1

4--POMEROYS PIST’---17.391**3--4x5**1=---37**5--5**3---627**5

5-TURBULENT DESC’-14.578**5--4x5**1=---84**1--4**4=--628**4

Four of these fillies had a nice 4x5 basic first cross. The 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th

Placed fillies had very nice high levels of line-breeding. The enigma

is the winning filly which has lower line-breeding level and a dam that has several
good principles, but 4 parts of it’s pedigree with possible inaccuracies based on
 known principles, and the sire has basic principles which would work, but
 several others are missing which complicates the assessment of  the winning
 filly Musical Romance.

Fin Position----Horse-----Intro-----Fem4-----Match-----F4------3Gen

1-MUSICAL ROMAN’--11**4=---52**4------95**3---19**2---5.07**4

2---SWITCH--------------14**1=---45**5-----111**2---16**3---5.33**3

3---HER SMILE----------13**3----94**1-----156**1….30**1--9.60**1

4---POMEROYS PIST’-14**1=---75**3------76**5----12**4=-4.73**5

5-TURBULENT DESC’-11**4=--79**2------81**4….12**4=--7.53**2

2^nd and 3^rd placed fillies again measure up extremely well here.

Fin Position----Horse-----5Gen-----TMale-----TFemale-----AMale-----

1-MUSICAL ROMAN’--7.14**5------31**1=-----18**4-----10.29**4

2---SWITCH--------------7.38**4-------30**3=-----13**5----11.61**1

3---HER SMILE----------7.43**3------31**1=------21**3-----9.65**5

4---POMEROYS PIST’--8.27**1------30**3=------23**1----11.45**2

5-TURBULENT DESC’-8.22**2------29**5--------22**2----10.74**3

The 4^th and 5^th placed fillies which were good winners, also showed up

very well on the above principles.

Fin Position----Horse----- AFemale-----DamW-----DamS----DamSW---

1-MUSICAL ROMAN’---4.23**4---------6**4------23**3-------9**2

2---SWITCH---------------3.39**5--------21**1=----28**1------13**1

3---HER SMILE-----------5.45**2--------21**1=----10**5-------2**5

4---POMEROYS PIST’---5.35**3-------16**3------27**2-------3**3=

5-TURBULENT DESC’--5.97**1---------5**5------14**4-------3**3=

All 5 fillies showed impressive levels of selection and numbers for

each of these principles, and allied to extremely good ancestry, it

is clear why these fillies were contesting a high class, valuable race.

Fin Position----Horse------ Pre%--------15G-----------Ped/SW

1-MUSICAL ROMAN’----33**5-------54**3--------414/661=1075**5

2---SWITCH----------------69**2-------50**4---------836/943=1779**2

3---HER SMILE------------66**3------55**2----------672/848=1520**3

4---POMEROYS PIST’----61**4------40**5-------1123/1194=2317**1

5-TURBULENT DESC’---85**1-------70**1---------744/675=1419**4

Having a quick look at the pedigree of Turbulent Descent, we notice she

has won 13 races and earned $2,099,100. She ran 5^th in this race and was

fourth in the numbers of SW her first 31 sires sired in total. Sources vary, and
  each week the total can change, but it does give some kind of

comparison, and when the pedigree is checked, the stallions in the pedigree
 become more meaningful.

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The 744 SW in her sire’s pedigree look something like this…

Congrats-6, APIndy-140, Seattle Slew-114, Mr Prospector-192,
 BoldReasoning-10, Secretariat-57, Raise a native-78, Northern Dancer-147.

The 675 SW in her dam’s pedigree look something like this..

Forestry-42, Storm Cat-180, Seeking The Gold-92, Storm Bird-63,

Pleasant Colony-78, Mr Prospector-192, Slew o’Gold-28.

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I did a few hundred of these Breeders Cup pedigrees, and after adding

up all the SW out to 5 generations,  I did a check with the totals to

4 generations which was much quicker, and in over 90% of the cases

there was no change in the order of the total for the horses being checked.
 Will save a lot of time in the future.

SUMMARY.

Except for the winning filly, Musical Romance, the Breeding Principles

Got the 2^nd and 3^rd grouped OK, and the 4^th and 5^th grouped OK.