Chapter One-(2013 series of articles)

NOTES for Breeders Cup, New Zealand Yearling Sales, Champion Sires

DOES ANYONE WANT TO SELECT, OWN, BET ON,

OR BREED A BREEDERS CUP WINNER?....

We have found some consistent principles appearing in many of the above groups pedigrees and following are some statistics and ideas which may help to point you a bit further in the right direction.

2011 –Jet Juvenile Sprint-Prize money=$595,200-Nov 4, 2011

1….A lot of research on the pedigrees of outstanding gallopers

around the world has been compared with  the fifteen 2011 and fifteen 2012 Breeders Cup races in the USA. Enclosed is the first of these selected races.

2…Perhaps other thoroughbred pedigree researchers may be

interested  in seeing some of the outcomes, so when I find time, I’ll try and get these thirty races all keyed up and added to my BLOG.

You can find it by using GOOGLE on this heading… LesPratt-Pedigree.

3…The serious researchers among you will appreciate just how much time is required to undertake this kind of research. Last year we spent   over three weeks on that group and another three weeks again this year in  just compiling all the 421 or so pedigrees and finding as much information about them as possible, so that valid comparisons could be made.

4…To make it more of a similar comparison under the same conditions, I’ve grouped  and compared horses in the same race, over the same distance, at the same time, and listed the 1^st 5 finishers in each race.

This may take some of the variation away which usually confuses and can lead to inappropriate conclusions.

5…It is extremely difficult to compare sprinters with stayers, 2yos

with older horses, males with females, wet trackers with fast surface horses, but we have noticed there are general BREEDING PRINCIPLES that hold good across the board.

6…I’ve noticed some world class gallopers failing in some of these

races, and then winning handsomely in other big races, or even in

the same race the next year.

7…Although the pedigree is reasonably constant, the competition, jockey, distance, surface, position, horse’s condition, mindset, fitness can all vary from race to race. So, a horse’s overall record will give a better guide to it’s ability. However, the form of the horse on the day is very important, plus the knowledgeable better who is on course can also make judgements on the horses coat, sweating up, going scratchy, hock alignment, state of the track surface, how jockey or trainer is performing on the day, and other important factors on the day which could enhance or detract from a horse’s performance.

8…There are a number of punters and handicappers on the list like

Sir Harry, and  there may be a pointer or two here as well for them.

We would welcome any input you think may be of value or help.

9…There are other indicators as well. I have a few dozen other

breeding principles that could be listed, and of course we have

omitted mention of size, stride, class, finishing speed, course

preference/surface on the day, sweating up, over trained, coming

into form, time since last race, change in race distance, medication or niggling injuries, multiple experience/no experience on this track,

change of jockey, getting blocked in the race, pulling for it’s head,

getting carried wide, over racing, ideal/wrong position in the race,

virus/cough in the stable, or different abilities of the trainer/or jockey.

10…It is impossible to account for everything, so the best we can do  is to look at the information we deem to be more valuable and try and analyse and make as many comparisons as we can to make as much sense of the whole situation as we can.

11…Following is the first race comparisons for the 2011 and 2012

Breeders Cup races in the USA. All pedigrees have been compiled

out to 15 generations, racing performance found for the first 62

ancestors, and a lot of principles checked for comparison.

2011 –Jet Juvenile Sprint-Prize money=$595,200-Nov 4, 2011

6furlongs, 1m10.52, won by 1 length, 4 ½ lengths.

Fin Position----Horse-- Level---Close---Bal------Blue----Chains

1---SECRET CIRCLE-16.9**2--5x3**1-45%**5--4**3=-634**4

2---SHUMOOS---------18.6**1--4x4**1-58%**3---4**3--713**2

3---HOLDIN BULLETS--…..4………1=……..1……..1… …….3

4---SEEKER----------------…..5………5………4……..2……. …5

5---JAKE MO--------------…...3………3=…….2……..5…… ….1

In this first race, we notice ON THIS DAY, AT THIS TIME, there was a short length between 1^st and 2^nd horses. The barrier draw, placement, getting a good start, fitness, track conditions etc could all have a bearing and if any one of a dozen factors changed, then the result could have turned around for the first two horses, but they seemed to have a big edge on the next and following horses which were over 4 lengths behind.

In this speed event, the first 2 had the most line-breeding, and had the closest ancestor crosses, which normally are associated with speed.

Fin Position----Horse--- Intro----Fem4----Match----F4-----3Gen

1---SECRET CIRCLE--13**1=--86**2---108**2--15**2= -6.8**3

2---SHUMOOS-----------13**1=--72**4----96**3--15**2= -5.8**5

3---HOLDIN BULLETS--..…1=……..3……….4……..4… …….1

4---SEEKER----------------.….4……….5………4=…....5… …….2

5---JAKE MO--------------..….5……….1………1……..1… ……4

The first 2 horses had the most INTRO crosses and were consisatently in first few positions for Fem4, Match and F4 principles.

Fin Position----Horse------ 5Gen-----TMale-----TFemale-----AMale-----

1---SECRET CIRCLE-----7.6**4---29**5------21**2------10.6**4

2---SHUMOOS-------------8.0**2---31**1=----23**1-------12.0**2

3---HOLDIN BULLETS--……..1………3=……….4…………..1

4---SEEKER----------------……..5………1=……….5…………..5

5---JAKE MO--------------………3………3=………3………….3

The 5 Gen adding the wins of all ancestors in the first 5 generations

showed a good correlation, and so did having the most good racemares

in the pedigree, where 1^st and 2^nd had 21 out of 31 and 23 out of 31

of the mares in their pedigrees being good performers.

Fin Position----Horse---AFemale-----DamW-----DamS----DamSW---

1---SECRET CIRCLE-4.8**1-------5w**5-----10w**5--4SW**3=

2---SHUMOOS---------4.2**3-------13w**3----22w**3---7SW**1

3---HOLDIN BULLETS--…2………….4………….1…………5

4---SEEKER----------------...5…………..2……...…4……....…3=

5---JAKE MO--------------…4………….1……....…2……....…2

All 31 mares in the pedigree were averaging over 4 wins, with the 2^nd horse having an extremely good family, where 13 wins were along his dam line, as well as 22 winners being produced along with  7SW.

Fin Position----Horse---- Pre%-------15G-----------Ped/SW

1---SECRET CIRCLE---92.8**1=--63%**1---1217/733=1950**2

2---SHUMOOS------------92.8**1=--45%**3--1082/1281=2363**1

3---HOLDIN BULLETS--……4…………..5---1088/675=1763**3

4---SEEKER----------------……2…………..4…979/479=1450**4

5---JAKE MO--------------…….5…………..2…580/735=1315**5

Both 1^st and 2^nd horse were way out in front on the Hitting Prepotency principle, and in crosses out to 15 generations index.

They also were the first two ranked horses when the SW sired by all

their first 31 male ancestors were added up and compared with the

3^rd, 4^th and 5^th finishers.

SUMMARY..

When the points for position were added up, the Breeding Principles selected the first 3 horses in the first 3, and 4^th and 5^th as the last two.

Finished 1^st…56points…selected 2^nd

Finished 2^nd….46 points…selected 1^st

Finished 3^rd….58 points…selected 3^rd

---------------------------------------------

Finished 4^th….81 points…selected 5th

Finished 5^th….59 points…selected 4th

If bettors had bet on the first two selected horses, they could have

made a very good return with a good betting plan.